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| Titel |
Temperature extremes in the Mediterranean area: trends in the past and assessments for the future |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Hertig, S. Seubert, J. Jacobeit |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 10, no. 10 ; Nr. 10, no. 10 (2010-10-05), S.2039-2050 |
| Datensatznummer |
250008438
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-10-2039-2010.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Trends of Mediterranean extreme temperatures are analysed for the period
1961–1990 based on daily station time series. Increases can be identified in
the western Mediterranean area, whereas an opposite trend becomes apparent
for the eastern Mediterranean region. Assessments of the 95th
percentile of maximum temperatures in summer and of the 5th percentile
of minimum temperatures in winter for the 21st century under enhanced
greenhouse warming conditions are performed by means of statistical
downscaling techniques. Mainly increases of both extreme indices result from
these assessments, but considerable differences arise when using different
predictors or predictor combinations, respectively. Furthermore, the results
give strong indications that changes in temperature extremes do not follow a
simple shift of the whole temperature distribution to higher values. |
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