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| Titel |
An analysis of long-term regional-scale ozone simulations over the Northeastern United States: variability and trends |
| VerfasserIn |
C. Hogrefe, W. Hao, E. E. Zalewsky, J.-Y. Ku, B. Lynn, C. Rosenzweig, M. G. Schultz, S. Rast, M. J. Newchurch, L. Wang, P. L. Kinney, G. Sistla |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 2 ; Nr. 11, no. 2 (2011-01-20), S.567-582 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009185
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-567-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study presents the results from two sets of 18-year air quality
simulations over the Northeastern US performed with a regional
photochemical modeling system. These two simulations utilize different sets
of lateral boundary conditions, one corresponding to a time-invariant
climatological vertical profile and the other derived from monthly mean
concentrations extracted from archived ECHAM5-MOZART global simulations. The
objective is to provide illustrative examples of how model performance in
several key aspects – trends, intra- and interannual variability of
ground-level ozone, and ozone/precursor relationships – can be evaluated
against available observations, and to identify key inputs and processes
that need to be considered when performing and improving such long-term
simulations. To this end, several methods for comparing observed and
simulated trends and variability of ground level ozone concentrations, ozone
precursors and ozone/precursor relationships are introduced. The application
of these methods to the simulation using time-invariant boundary conditions
reveals that the observed downward trend in the upper percentiles of
summertime ozone concentrations is captured by the model in both
directionality and magnitude. However, for lower percentiles there is a
marked disagreement between observed and simulated trends. In terms of
variability, the simulations using the time-invariant boundary conditions
underestimate observed inter-annual variability by 30%–50% depending
on the percentiles of the distribution. The use of boundary conditions from
the ECHAM5-MOZART simulations improves the representation of interannual
variability but has an adverse impact on the simulated ozone trends.
Moreover, biases in the global simulations have the potential to
significantly affect ozone simulations throughout the modeling domain, both
at the surface and aloft. The comparison of both simulations highlights the
significant impact lateral boundary conditions can have on a regional air
quality model's ability to simulate long-term ozone variability and trends,
especially for the lower percentiles of the ozone distribution. |
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