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| Titel |
Global land cover change impacts on future climate under RCP scenarios |
| VerfasserIn |
Martina Weiß, Bart van den Hurk, Reindeert Haarsma |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2013
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 15 (2013) |
| Datensatznummer |
250082444
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Anthropogenic land-use activities have led to large-scale changes in global vegetation cover over the past century, and will probably continue in the future. This impact is potentially significant, since managed crop lands and pastures are now among the largest ecosystems on earth. Their surface parameters differ largely from those of most natural vegetations they replace.With the CMIP5 models now for the first time considering anthropogenic land cover changes as part of the coordinated climate model experiments, new means are available to quantify this impact on modelled past and future climate. In this study we analyse historical CMIP5 runs of the AOGCM EC-EARTH to assess the agreement of modelled and measured climate of the past, as well as two RCP scenarios simulations (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the 21st century, with and without land cover changes, to identify and isolate their impact on atmospheric variables and thus possible future climates. RCP scenarios encompass different levels of re-forestation, which makes the analysis of land cover change impacts on future climates even more indispensable, since de-forestation is generally connected with cooling effects mainly due to increase in albedo, and re-forestation might therefore lead to local, yet unaccounted for warming. |
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