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| Titel |
Logistic regression applied to natural hazards: rare event logistic regression with replications |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Guns, V. Vanacker |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 6 ; Nr. 12, no. 6 (2012-06-18), S.1937-1947 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010925
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1937-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Statistical analysis of natural hazards needs particular attention, as most
of these phenomena are rare events. This study shows that the ordinary rare
event logistic regression, as it is now commonly used in geomorphologic
studies, does not always lead to a robust detection of controlling factors, as
the results can be strongly sample-dependent. In this paper, we introduce
some concepts of Monte Carlo simulations in rare event logistic regression.
This technique, so-called rare event logistic regression with replications,
combines the strength of probabilistic and statistical methods, and allows
overcoming some of the limitations of previous developments through robust
variable selection. This technique was here developed for the analyses of
landslide controlling factors, but the concept is widely applicable for
statistical analyses of natural hazards. |
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