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| Titel |
Are there differences in atmospheric circulations between a 1.5°C and a 2.0°C warmer world? |
| VerfasserIn |
Lise Seland Graff, Ingo Bethke, Trond Iversen, Camille Li |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250150108
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-14535.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this presentation, we use a multi-model ensemble of global atmospheric model simulations
to examine how the atmospheric circulation at mid-latitudes may change in a world that
experiences a warming of 1.5°C and of 2.0°C over pre-industrial conditions. The data are
taken from a suite of simulations carried out for the international project "Half a degree
Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Implications" (HAPPI), coordinated by Oxford
and Bristol Universities as a follow-up of the "Paris agreement" of December 2015
(http://www.happimip.org/).
The HAPPI data set includes simulation results from several (∼10) atmospheric
models, each with 50–100 ensemble members covering 10-year long periods. This
large sample size enables assessing the systematic climate response relative to the
internal climate variability. We will present results from the present decade, as well
as the 1.5°C and 2.0°C experiments. The presentation focuses on data from the
interim version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1_Happi), but also
includes data from the other models participating in the project as they become
available.
The analysis will mainly focus on changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation
patterns, including the jet streams, the mid-latitude storm tracks, and the frequency and
duration of blocking events.
We would like to acknowledge the contributions of the modeling centers participating in
the HAPPI project and the coordinators Myles Allen and Dann Mitchell. |
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