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| Titel |
Developing system robustness analysis for drought risk management: an application on a water supply reservoir |
| VerfasserIn |
M. J. P. Mens, K. Gilroy, D. Williams |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 8 ; Nr. 15, no. 8 (2015-08-26), S.1933-1940 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119646
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-1933-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Droughts will likely become more frequent, greater in magnitude and
longer in duration in the future due to climate change. Already in the present
climate, a variety of drought events may occur with different exceedance
frequencies. These frequencies are becoming more uncertain due to climate
change. Many methods in support of drought risk management focus on
providing insight into changing drought frequencies, and use water supply
reliability as a key decision criterion. In contrast, robustness analysis
focuses on providing insight into the full range of drought events and their
impact on a system's functionality. This method has been developed for flood
risk systems, but applications on drought risk systems are lacking. This
paper aims to develop robustness analysis for drought risk systems, and
illustrates the approach through a case study with a water supply reservoir
and its users. We explore drought characterization and the assessment of a
system's ability to deal with drought events, by quantifying the severity
and socio-economic impact of a variety of drought events, both frequent and
rare ones. Furthermore, we show the effect of three common drought
management strategies (increasing supply, reducing demand and implementing
hedging rules) on the robustness of the coupled water supply and
socio-economic system. The case is inspired by Oologah Lake, a multipurpose
reservoir in Oklahoma, United States. Results demonstrate that although
demand reduction and supply increase may have a comparable effect on the
supply reliability, demand reduction may be preferred from a robustness
perspective. To prepare drought management plans for dealing with current
and future droughts, it is thus recommended to test how alternative drought
strategies contribute to a system's robustness rather than relying solely on
water reliability as the decision criterion. |
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