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| Titel |
Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling |
| VerfasserIn |
V. Pérez-Muñuzuri, I. R. Gelpi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
0992-7689
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Annales Geophysicae ; 18, no. 10 ; Nr. 18, no. 10, S.1349-1359 |
| Datensatznummer |
250014084
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/angeo-18-1349-2000.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
A nonlinear forecasting method was used to
predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance.
The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using
four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared
images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time
series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic
attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological
model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface
temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding.
The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction
results.
Key words: Meterology and atmospheric dynamics
(mesoscale meteorology; general) – General (new fields) |
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