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| Titel |
A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections: land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties |
| VerfasserIn |
K. Frieler, A. Levermann, J. Elliott, J. Heinke, A. Arneth, M. F. P. Bierkens, P. Ciais, D. B. Clark, D. Deryng, P. Döll, P. Falloon, B. Fekete, C. Folberth, A. D. Friend, C. Gellhorn, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Khabarov, M. Lomas, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, K. Neumann, T. Oki, R. Pavlick, A. C. Ruane, E. Schmid, C. Schmitz, T. Stacke, E. Stehfest, Q. Tang, D. Wisser, V. Huber, F. Piontek, L. Warszawski, J. Schewe, H. Lotze-Campen, H. J. Schellnhuber |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 6, no. 2 ; Nr. 6, no. 2 (2015-07-16), S.447-460 |
| Datensatznummer |
250115470
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-6-447-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for
societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a,
b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions
include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et
al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in
extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is
considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts
(Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale
climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example,
the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others
that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment
of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For
example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an
expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area
available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing
this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in
crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic
decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management
and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations
generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project
(ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact
simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust
decision making.
Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off
between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural
carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition,
crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation
increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could
limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and
growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model
uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning
and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. |
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