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| Titel |
Summer temperature and drought co-variability across Europe since 850 CE |
| VerfasserIn |
Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Ulf Büntgen, Edward R. Cook, Jan Esper, Dominik Fleitmann, Mary H. Gagen, Elena García Bustamante, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Paul J. Krusic, Jürg Luterbacher, Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar, Kristina Seftigen, Andrea Seim, Olga Solomina, Johannes P. Werner, Elena Xoplaki, Eduardo Zorita |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250146533
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-10561.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Under the present global warming condition the increasing risk of droughts and floods is a major concern. Droughts have severe consequences for agricultural productivity across wide areas. However, state-of-the-art climate models are not consistent in their projections of hydroclimate changes under global warming, on regional scales, which limits attempts at defining long-term mitigation strategies. A better understanding of past summer temperature and hydroclimate co-variability will provide valuable empirical information on how increasing/decreasing temperatures will affect summer drought conditions at different time-scales over Europe.
We use instrumental data, the new gridded tree-ring-derived Old World Drought Atlas by Cook et al. (2015), the gridded European summer temperature reconstruction by Luterbacher et al. (2016), as well as two high-resolution last millennium (850–2005 CE) climate simulations (CCSM4 and MPI-ESM-P), to assess the spatio-temporal co-variability of summer temperature and summer drought over Europe, at inter-annual to centennial time-scales, since 850 CE. This allows us to i) investigate potential changes in the dominating patterns of co-variability at different time scales, and ii) assess the accuracy and precision of climate models to simulate summer temperature and summer drought co-variability as found in both the 20th century instrumental data and millennium-long tree-ring based climate reconstructions. The discussion of cross-spectral analyses of temperature and drought will likely improve our understanding of the long-term co-variability of these important climate variables at continental scales in Europe.
References:
Cook, E.R., et al. (2015) Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era. Science Advances, 1, e1500561, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1500561.
Luterbacher, J., et al. (2016) European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environmental Research Letters 11, e024001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/1/024001. |
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