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| Titel |
Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions |
| VerfasserIn |
R. Quilbé, A. N. Rousseau, J.-S. Moquet, S. Savary, S. Ricard, M. S. Garbouj |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 12, no. 1 ; Nr. 12, no. 1 (2008-01-25), S.101-110 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010462
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-12-101-2008.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is
difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River
watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the
influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff;
and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under
climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated
modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using
satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an
increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the
beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years.
Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water
discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first
assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution
scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture
intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range
of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios
considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly
water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced
opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially
during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to
CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario
provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study
shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when
predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed. |
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