 |
| Titel |
Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models |
| VerfasserIn |
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voß, A. J. Wiltshire |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
Englisch
|
| ISSN |
2190-4979
|
| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 4, no. 1 ; Nr. 4, no. 1 (2013-05-07), S.129-144 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017775
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-4-129-2013.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycle resulting in
large-scale impacts on water availability. However, future climate change
impact assessments are highly uncertain. For the first time, multiple global
climate (three) and hydrological models (eight) were used to systematically
assess the hydrological response to climate change and project the future
state of global water resources. This multi-model ensemble allows us to
investigate how the hydrology models contribute to the uncertainty in
projected hydrological changes compared to the climate models. Due to their
systematic biases, GCM outputs cannot be used directly in hydrological impact
studies, so a statistical bias correction has been applied. The results show
a large spread in projected changes in water resources within the
climate–hydrology modelling chain for some regions. They clearly
demonstrate that climate models are not the only source of uncertainty for
hydrological change, and that the spread resulting from the choice of the
hydrology model is larger than the spread originating from the climate
models over many areas. But there are also areas showing a robust change
signal, such as at high latitudes and in some midlatitude regions, where
the models agree on the sign of projected hydrological changes, indicative
of higher confidence in this ensemble mean signal. In many catchments an
increase of available water resources is expected but there are some severe
decreases in Central and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Mississippi
River basin, southern Africa, southern China and south-eastern Australia. |
| |
|
| Teil von |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|