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| Titel |
Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau |
| VerfasserIn |
W. Wang, T. Liang, X. Huang, Q. Feng, H. Xie, X. Liu, M. Chen, X. Wang |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 6 ; Nr. 13, no. 6 (2013-06-05), S.1411-1425 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018491
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-1411-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock
disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk
assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on
the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Data used for the model development include remote
sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy,
and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component
analysis (PCA) approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over
85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean
annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock
stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C,
grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock
gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to
validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with
an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no
disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the
study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP. |
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