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| Titel |
Developing an Adaptive Exposure Model to Support the Generation of Country Disaster Risk Profiles |
| VerfasserIn |
Rashmin Gunasekera, Oscar Ishizawa, Christoph Aubrecht, Gonzalo Pita, Antonios Pomonis, Kayoum Fane, Siobhan Murray, Brian Blankespoor |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2014
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 16 (2014) |
| Datensatznummer |
250100267
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2014-16168.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probabilistic disaster risk profiles provide estimates of potential damage to property and life
caused by adverse natural hazards. A Country Disaster Risk Profile (CDRP), which is a
coarse level analysis, presents an estimate of risk at the national level. We define the exposure
model in that context as a geo-referenced database of assets at risk at a 1-km grid level,
capturing important attributes such as geographical location, urban/rural classification, type
of occupancy (e.g. residential and non-residential), building typology (e.g. wood, steel,
masonry), and aggregated asset value.
We present here a sensitivity analysis of key parameters of the exposure model developed
in relation to CDRPs. Specifically, we analyse the sensitivity in characterisation of built up
areas, and associated disaggregation of assets. We evaluate this by comparing datasets such as
Modis 500m (2010), Landscan (2012), BuREF (2012), and GUF (2013). We also present a
method to integrate exterior wall and roof type typologies to assess vulnerability of
buildings to both earthquakes and hurricanes. Finally, developments in determining
replacement value of buildings from national and sub national datasets are presented.
Integration of all these developments together produces an exposure model. The
sensitivity of such a model output is even more crucial in risk analysis of Small
Island States (SIS), and we highlight this with case studies from the Caribbean
region.
This resultant gridded exposure database could be convolved with hazard and
vulnerability components to create CDRPs for multiple hazards that include earthquake, flood
and windstorms.
The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of
the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for
Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those
of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. |
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