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| Titel |
Seasonal forecasting of fire over Kalimantan, Indonesia |
| VerfasserIn |
A. C. Spessa, R. D. Field, F. Pappenberger, A. Langner, S. Englhart, U. Weber, T. Stockdale, F. Siegert, J. W. Kaiser, J. Moore |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 3 ; Nr. 15, no. 3 (2015-03-06), S.429-442 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119363
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-429-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
Large-scale fires occur frequently across Indonesia, particularly in the
southern region of Kalimantan and eastern Sumatra. They have considerable
impacts on carbon emissions, haze production, biodiversity, health, and
economic activities.
In this study, we demonstrate that severe fire and haze events in Indonesia
can generally be predicted months in advance using predictions of seasonal
rainfall from the ECMWF System 4 coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Based on
analyses of long, up-to-date series observations on burnt area,
rainfall, and tree cover, we demonstrate that fire activity is negatively
correlated with rainfall and is positively associated with deforestation in
Indonesia. There is a contrast between the southern region of Kalimantan
(high fire activity, high tree cover loss, and strong non-linear correlation
between observed rainfall and fire) and the central region of Kalimantan
(low fire activity, low tree cover loss, and weak, non-linear correlation
between observed rainfall and fire).
The ECMWF seasonal forecast provides skilled forecasts of burnt and fire-affected area with several months lead time explaining at least 70% of
the variance between rainfall and burnt and fire-affected area. Results are
strongly influenced by El Niño years which show a consistent positive
bias. Overall, our findings point to a high potential for using a more
physical-based method for predicting fires with several months lead time in
the tropics rather than one based on indexes only. We argue that seasonal
precipitation forecasts should be central to Indonesia's evolving fire
management policy. |
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