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| Titel |
Determination of time- and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Stohl, A. J. Prata, S. Eckhardt, L. Clarisse, A. Durant, S. Henne, N. I. Kristiansen, A. Minikin, U. Schumann, P. Seibert, K. Stebel, H. E. Thomas, T. Thorsteinsson, K. Tørseth, B. Weinzierl |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1680-7316
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ; 11, no. 9 ; Nr. 11, no. 9 (2011-05-11), S.4333-4351 |
| Datensatznummer |
250009707
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/acp-11-4333-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The April–May, 2010 volcanic eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland caused
significant economic and social disruption in Europe whilst state of the art
measurements and ash dispersion forecasts were heavily criticized by the
aviation industry. Here we demonstrate for the first time that large
improvements can be made in quantitative predictions of the fate of volcanic
ash emissions, by using an inversion scheme that couples a priori source
information and the output of a Lagrangian dispersion model with satellite
data to estimate the volcanic ash source strength as a function of altitude
and time. From the inversion, we obtain a total fine ash emission of the
eruption of 8.3 ± 4.2 Tg for particles in the size range of
2.8–28 μm diameter. We evaluate the results of our model results
with a posteriori ash emissions using independent ground-based, airborne and
space-borne measurements both in case studies and statistically.
Subsequently, we estimate the area over Europe affected by volcanic ash above
certain concentration thresholds relevant for the aviation industry. We find
that during three episodes in April and May, volcanic ash concentrations at
some altitude in the atmosphere exceeded the limits for the "Normal" flying
zone in up to 14 % (6–16 %), 2 % (1–3 %) and 7 %
(4–11 %), respectively, of the European area. For a limit of
2 mg m−3 only two episodes with fractions of 1.5 %
(0.2–2.8 %) and 0.9 % (0.1–1.6 %) occurred, while the current
"No-Fly" zone criterion of 4 mg m−3 was rarely exceeded. Our results
have important ramifications for determining air space closures and for
real-time quantitative estimations of ash concentrations. Furthermore, the
general nature of our method yields better constraints on the distribution
and fate of volcanic ash in the Earth system. |
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