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| Titel |
Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Hirschi, S. Stoeckli, M. Dubrovsky, C. Spirig, P. Calanca, M. W. Rotach, A. M. Fischer, B. Duffy, J. Samietz |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 3, no. 1 ; Nr. 3, no. 1 (2012-02-27), S.33-47 |
| Datensatznummer |
250000848
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-3-33-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions
of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more
frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given
their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for
various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology,
depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on
that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future
weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined
stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing
site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future
(1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland.
The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model
projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes
in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first
generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a
nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles.
These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate
change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of
predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella)
and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest
and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural
crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the
occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern
Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under
today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the
2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also
significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from
roughly 1% on average today to over 60% in the future for the median
climate change signal of the multi-model projections), the actual risk will
critically depend on the pace of the adaptation of the codling moth with
respect to the critical photoperiod. To control this additional generation,
an intensification and prolongation of control measures (e.g. insecticides)
will be required, implying an increasing risk of pesticide resistances. For
fire blight, the projected changes in infection days are less certain due to
uncertainties in the leaf wetness approximation and the simulation of the
blooming period. Two compensating effects are projected, warmer temperatures
favoring infections are balanced by a temperature-induced advancement of the
blooming period, leading to no significant change in the number of infection
days under future climate conditions for most stations. |
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