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| Titel |
Estimation of predictive hydrologic uncertainty using the quantile regression and UNEEC methods and their comparison on contrasting catchments |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Dogulu, P. López López, D. P. Solomatine, A. H. Weerts, D. L. Shrestha |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 19, no. 7 ; Nr. 19, no. 7 (2015-07-23), S.3181-3201 |
| Datensatznummer |
250120766
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-19-3181-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In operational hydrology, estimation of the predictive uncertainty of
hydrological models used for flood modelling is essential for risk-based
decision making for flood warning and emergency management. In the
literature, there exists a variety of methods analysing and predicting uncertainty. However, studies devoted to
comparing the performance of the methods in predicting uncertainty are
limited. This paper focuses on the methods predicting model residual
uncertainty that differ in methodological complexity: quantile regression
(QR) and UNcertainty Estimation based on local Errors and Clustering (UNEEC).
The comparison of the methods is aimed at investigating how well a simpler
method using fewer input data performs over a more complex method with more
predictors. We test these two methods on several catchments from the UK that
vary in hydrological characteristics and the models used. Special attention
is given to the methods' performance under different hydrological conditions.
Furthermore, normality of model residuals in data clusters (identified by
UNEEC) is analysed. It is found that basin lag time and forecast lead time
have a large impact on the quantification of uncertainty and the presence of
normality in model residuals' distribution. In general, it can be said that
both methods give similar results. At the same time, it is also shown that
the UNEEC method provides better performance than QR for small catchments
with the changing hydrological dynamics, i.e. rapid response catchments. It
is recommended that more case studies of catchments of distinct hydrologic
behaviour, with diverse climatic conditions, and having various hydrological
features, be considered. |
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