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| Titel |
HESS Opinions "On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?" |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Pappenberger, H. L. Cloke, A. Persson, D. Demeritt |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 7 ; Nr. 15, no. 7 (2011-07-26), S.2391-2400 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012901
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2391-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction
forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is
emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is
what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different
conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In
this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast
inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points",
"Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast
inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how
we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we
should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The
property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many
forecasting environments. |
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