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| Titel |
Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP |
| VerfasserIn |
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, N. Arnell |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 4, no. 2 ; Nr. 4, no. 2 (2013-10-10), S.359-374 |
| Datensatznummer |
250084957
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-4-359-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water
resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP
(Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations
forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative
Concentration Pathway 8.5 have been analysed for differences between
impact models. Projections of change from a baseline period (1981–2010)
to the future (2070–2099) from 12 impacts models which contributed
to the hydrological and biomes sectors of ISI-MIP were studied. The
biome models differed from the hydrological models by the inclusion
of CO2 impacts and most also included a dynamic vegetation
distribution. The biome and hydrological models agreed on the sign
of runoff change for most regions of the world. However, in West
Africa, the hydrological models projected drying, and the biome models
a moistening. The biome models tended to produce larger increases
and smaller decreases in regionally averaged runoff than the hydrological
models, although there is large inter-model spread. The timing of
runoff change was similar, but there were differences in magnitude,
particularly at peak runoff. The impact of vegetation distribution
change was much smaller than the projected change over time, while
elevated CO2 had an effect as large as the magnitude
of change over time projected by some models in some regions. The
effect of CO2 on runoff was not consistent across the
models, with two models showing increases and two decreases. There
was also more spread in projections from the runs with elevated CO2
than with constant CO2. The biome models which gave increased
runoff from elevated CO2 were also those which differed
most from the hydrological models. Spatially, regions with most difference
between model types tended to be projected to have most effect from
elevated CO2, and seasonal differences were also similar,
so elevated CO2 can partly explain the differences between
hydrological and biome model runoff change projections. Therefore,
this shows that a range of impact models should be considered to give
the full range of uncertainty in impacts studies. |
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