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| Titel |
Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation? |
| VerfasserIn |
T. M. Lenton, V. N. Livina, V. Dakos, M. Scheffer |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 8, no. 4 ; Nr. 8, no. 4 (2012-07-09), S.1127-1139 |
| Datensatznummer |
250005702
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-8-1127-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the
start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but
their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may
involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing
climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative
state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to
perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability.
Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can
trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has
found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a
whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a
bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which
the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its
stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial
state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate
proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the
end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust
increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal,
suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic
fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was
accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate
variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode
of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength,
causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the
Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent
evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer spliced
record of the cold climate state before and after the Bølling-Allerød.
Therefore, the end of the Younger Dryas may also have been triggered by a
stochastic perturbation. |
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