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| Titel |
Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Elmer, J. Hoymann, D. Düthmann, S. Vorogushyn, H. Kreibich |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 12, no. 5 ; Nr. 12, no. 5 (2012-05-23), S.1641-1657 |
| Datensatznummer |
250010827
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-12-1641-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be
caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing
land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely
unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk
changes.
We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for
residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte
Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and
model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from
climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk
estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify
the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate
change, land-use change and changes in building values.
We estimate flood risk and building losses based on constant values and
based on effective (inflation adjusted) values separately. For constant
values, estimated building losses for the most extreme inundation scenario
amount to more than 360 million € for all time steps. Based on effective
values, damage estimates for the same inundation scenario decrease from 478 million € in 1990 to 361 million € in 2000 and 348 million € in 2020
(maximum land-use scenario). Using constant values, flood risk is 111%
(effective values: 146%) of the 2000 estimate in 1990 and 121%
(effective values: 115%) of the 2000 estimate for the maximum land-use
scenario in 2020. The quantification of driver contributions reveals that
land-use change in the form of urban sprawl in endangered areas is the main
driver of flood risk in the study area. Climate induced flood hazard change
is important but not a dominant factor of risk change in the study area.
With the historical exception of the economic effects in Eastern Germany
following the German reunification, value developments only have minor
influence on the development of flood risk. |
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