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| Titel |
A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia |
| VerfasserIn |
N. Horspool, I. Pranantyo, J. Griffin, H. Latief, D. H. Natawidjaja, W. Kongko, A. Cipta, B. Bustaman, S. D. Anugrah, H. K. Thio |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 14, no. 11 ; Nr. 14, no. 11 (2014-11-28), S.3105-3122 |
| Datensatznummer |
250118757
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-14-3105-2014.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the
threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning
evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has
been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004
Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda
Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such
as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent
probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment
produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from
tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The
methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic
seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account
for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the
use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For
short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast
of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer
return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the
Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The
annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of
> 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands
(Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of
experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause
significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali,
Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores.
The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for
disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or
more detailed hazard or risk assessment. |
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