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| Titel |
Calibration of landslide runout models |
| VerfasserIn |
Jose Cepeda, José Alexander Chávez, Celina Cruz Martínez |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2010
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 12 (2010) |
| Datensatznummer |
250038687
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| Zusammenfassung |
| A review of the existing procedures for selection of runout model parameters from back
analyses shows that these procedures do not allow integrating different types of
runout criteria and generally lack a systematic approach. A new method based on
Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses and aimed to overcoming these
limitations is herein proposed. The method consists of estimating discrete classifiers
for every runout simulation associated with a set of model parameters. The set
of parameters that yields the best prediction is selected using ROC metrics and
space. The procedure is illustrated with the back analyses of a rainfall-triggered
debris flow that killed 300-500 people in the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador
(AMSS), El Salvador. The selected model parameters are used to estimate forward
predictions for scenarios that correspond to different return periods. The proposed
procedure may be useful in assessment of areas potentially affected by landslides.
In turn, this information can be used in production or updating of land use plans
and zonations, similar to that currently being carried out by the Office for Urban
Planning of the Metropolitan Area of San Salvador (OPAMSS), El Salvador. Finally,
practical aspects of the application of the method are discussed in the context of
calibration at regional scales and considering uncertainty in the input variables. |
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