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| Titel |
Effects of temperature on flood forecasting: analysis of an operative case study in Alpine basins |
| VerfasserIn |
A. Ceppi, G. Ravazzani, A. Salandin, D. Rabuffetti, A. Montani, E. Borgonovo, M. Mancini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ; 13, no. 4 ; Nr. 13, no. 4 (2013-04-19), S.1051-1062 |
| Datensatznummer |
250018414
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-13-1051-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
In recent years the interest in the forecast and prevention of natural
hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge
for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to
improve the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrological
purposes.
After the encouraging results obtained in the MAP D-PHASE Project, we decided
to devote further analyses to show recent improvements in the operational use
of hydro-meteorological chains, and above all to better investigate the key
role played by temperature during snowy precipitation.
In this study we present a reanalysis simulation of one meteorological event,
which occurred in November 2008 in the Piedmont Region. The attention is
focused on the key role of air temperature, which is a crucial feature in
determining the partitioning of precipitation in solid and liquid phase,
influencing the quantitative discharge forecast (QDF) into the Alpine region. This
is linked to the basin ipsographic curve and therefore by the total
contributing area related to the snow line of the event.
In order to assess hydrological predictions affected by meteorological
forcing, a sensitivity analysis of the model output was carried out to
evaluate different simulation scenarios, considering the forecast effects
which can radically modify the discharge forecast.
Results show how in real-time systems hydrological forecasters have to
consider also the temperature uncertainty in forecasts in order to better
understand the snow dynamics and its effect on runoff during a meteorological
warning with a crucial snow line over the basin.
The hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 members of the
meteorological ensemble system COSMO-LEPS (developed by ARPA-SIMC) based on
the non-hydrostatic model COSMO, while the hydrological model used to
generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall–runoff distributed FEST-WB
model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. |
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