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| Titel |
Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales |
| VerfasserIn |
E. Baratti, A. Montanari, A. Castellarin, J. L. Salinas, A. Viglione, A. Bezzi |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 12 ; Nr. 16, no. 12 (2012-12-13), S.4651-4660 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013610
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-4651-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We propose an original approach to infer the flood frequency
distribution at seasonal and annual time scale. Our purpose is to
estimate the peak flow that is expected for an assigned return period
T, independently of the season in which it occurs (i.e. annual flood
frequency regime), as well as in different selected sub-yearly periods
(i.e. seasonal flood frequency regime). While a huge literature
exists on annual flood frequency analysis, few studies have focused on
the estimation of seasonal flood frequencies despite the relevance of
the issue, for instance when scheduling along the months of the year
the construction phases of river engineering works directly
interacting with the active river bed, like for instance dams.
An approximate method for joint frequency analysis is presented here
that guarantees consistency between fitted annual and seasonal
distributions, i.e. the annual cumulative distribution is the product
of the seasonal cumulative distribution functions, under the
assumption of independence among floods in different seasons. In our
method the parameters of the seasonal frequency distributions are
fitted by maximising an objective function that accounts for the
likelihoods of both seasonal and annual peaks. In contrast to
previous studies, our procedure is conceived to allow the users to
introduce subjective weights to the components of the objective
function in order to emphasize the fitting of specific seasons or of
the annual peak flow distribution. An application to the time series of the
Blue Nile daily flows at the Sudan–Ethiopia border is presented. |
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