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| Titel |
Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations |
| VerfasserIn |
S. C. Pelt, J. J. Beersma, T. A. Buishand, B. J. J. M. Hurk, P. Kabat |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 16, no. 12 ; Nr. 16, no. 12 (2012-12-03), S.4517-4530 |
| Datensatznummer |
250013601
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-16-4517-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events
are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model
(GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Since floods are related
to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks.
In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better
description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five
bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single
greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES) were available for the Rhine
basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional
GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to
modify an observed (1961–1995) precipitation time series with an advanced
delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are
taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme
precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from
the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series
modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared
to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from
the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of
the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods. |
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