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| Titel |
Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming |
| VerfasserIn |
M. Beenstock, Y. Reingewertz, N. Paldor |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
2190-4979
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Earth System Dynamics ; 3, no. 2 ; Nr. 3, no. 2 (2012-11-21), S.173-188 |
| Datensatznummer |
250001009
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/esd-3-173-2012.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We use statistical methods for nonstationary time series to test the anthropogenic
interpretation of global warming (AGW), according to which an increase in atmospheric
greenhouse gas concentrations raised global temperature in the 20th century. Specifically,
the methodology of polynomial cointegration is used to test AGW since during the
observation period (1880–2007) global temperature and solar irradiance are stationary in
1st differences, whereas greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings are stationary in 2nd
differences. We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common
stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in
temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar
irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated, and the perceived
relationship between these variables is a spurious regression phenomenon. On the other
hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcings might have had a temporary effect on global
temperature. |
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