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| Titel |
Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium |
| VerfasserIn |
L. Fernández-Donado, J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, E. Zorita |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1814-9324
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Climate of the Past ; 9, no. 1 ; Nr. 9, no. 1 (2013-02-14), S.393-421 |
| Datensatznummer |
250017445
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/cp-9-393-2013.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Understanding natural climate variability and its driving
factors is crucial to assessing future climate change.
Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as
well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to
gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A
review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling
Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and
compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations
and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature
changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing
on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an
important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of
simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate
Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions.
Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature
changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems
realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing.
A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a
quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and
reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and
reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific
discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations.
The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced
covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change. |
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