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| Titel |
Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management? |
| VerfasserIn |
F. Fenicia, H. H. G. Savenije, Y. Avdeeva |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 13, no. 9 ; Nr. 13, no. 9 (2009-09-30), S.1727-1737 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012001
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-13-1727-2009.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of
catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment
response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff
behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model
parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although
not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment
attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography). Hence, we
assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of
catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available
hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During
this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The
catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as
"hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible
hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in
the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of
rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in
the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible
causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change
and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is
used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect
influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for
different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis,
we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly
over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training
works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant
impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with
previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on the hydrological
behaviour of the Meuse catchment was considered negligible, mainly because
there was not sufficient change in land cover to account for it. Here we
hypothesise that in the Meuse it was not the change of land cover that was
responsible for hydrological change, but rather the way the land was managed. |
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