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| Titel |
Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy) |
| VerfasserIn |
I. Sekovski, C. Armaroli, L. Calabrese, F. Mancini, F. Stecchi, L. Perini |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1561-8633
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 10 ; Nr. 15, no. 10 (2015-10-14), S.2331-2346 |
| Datensatznummer |
250119721
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/nhess-15-2331-2015.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding,
especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna
region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The
main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal
area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component
(total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was
done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and
> 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios
of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents
were derived by applying the Cost–Distance tool of ArcGIS® to
a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth
(similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by
applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if
the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely
increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios.
Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of
flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is
therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners. |
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