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| Titel |
A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale |
| VerfasserIn |
D. Anghileri, F. Pianosi, R. Soncini-Sessa |
| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| ISSN |
1027-5606
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| Digitales Dokument |
URL |
| Erschienen |
In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ; 15, no. 6 ; Nr. 15, no. 6 (2011-06-28), S.2025-2038 |
| Datensatznummer |
250012867
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 copernicus.org/hess-15-2025-2011.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| While quantitative assessment of the climate change impact on hydrology at
the basin scale is quite addressed in the literature, extension of
quantitative analysis to impact on the ecological, economic and social sphere
is still limited, although well recognized as a key issue to support water
resource planning and promote public participation. In this paper we propose
a framework for assessing climate change impact on water-related activities
at the basin scale. The specific features of our approach are that: (i) the
impact quantification is based on a set of performance indicators defined
together with the stakeholders, thus explicitly taking into account the
water-users preferences; (ii) the management policies are obtained by optimal
control techniques, linking stakeholder expectations and decision-making;
(iii) the multi-objective nature of the management problem is fully preserved
by simulating a set of Pareto-optimal management policies, which allows for
evaluating not only variations in the indicator values but also tradeoffs
among conflicting objectives. The framework is demonstrated by application to
a real world case study, Lake Como basin (Italy). We show that the most
conflicting water-related activities within the basin (i.e. hydropower
production and agriculture) are likely to be negatively impacted by climate
change. We discuss the robustness of the estimated impacts to the climate
natural variability and the approximations in modeling the physical system
and the socio-economic system, and perform an uncertainty analysis of several
sources of uncertainty. We demonstrate that the contribution of natural
climate uncertainty is rather remarkable and that, among different modelling
uncertainty sources, the one from climate modeling is very significant. |
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