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| Titel |
On the Assimilation of Tree-Ring-Width Chronologies |
| VerfasserIn |
Walter Acevedo, Sebastian Reich, Ulrich Cubasch |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2015
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
Englisch
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 17 (2015) |
| Datensatznummer |
250110624
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2015-10647.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Data assimilation (DA) of climate proxy records is currently acknowledged as a promising approach to the paleoclimate reconstruction problem, with the potential to bring physical consistency to reconstructed fields. Previous paleo-DA studies have typically assumed a linear relationship between climate forcing and the resulting proxy data, whereas there exist growing evidence of complex, potentially non-linear, proxy formation processes. Accordingly, it appears natural to simulate the proxy response to climate in a more realistic fashion, by way of proxy-specific forward models. Following this train of thought, we investigate the assimilation of the most traditional climate proxy type, Tree-Ring-Width (TRW) chronologies, using the process-based tree-ring growth forward model Vaganov-Shashkin-Lite (VSL) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques. Used as observation operator, VSL’s formulation implies three compounding, challenging features: (i) time averaging, (ii) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (iii) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. DA experiments involving VSL-based pseudo-TRW observations are performed first for a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and then for an atmospheric general circulation model of intermediate complexity. Our results reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may considerable deteriorate the performance of EnKF for Time-Averaged (TA) estimation, as compared to the utilization of a TA linear observation operator. Moreover, we show that this assimilation skill loss can be considerably reduced by embedding VSL's formulation into fuzzy logic theory, which fosters new interpretations of tree-ring growth limitation processes. |
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