 |
| Titel |
Interpolation and analyses of EURO-Cordex data for the characterization of local and regional climate change impact |
| VerfasserIn |
Manfred Fink, Kai Pfannschmidt, Raphel Knevels, Christian Fischer, Alexander Brenning |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
en
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250152809
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-17695.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| Decisions on measures for adapting to possible climate impacts are critical at both regional
and local levels of authority. Currently, the data from EURO-CORDEX is only provided at
resolutions (0.11 and 0.44 degrees) that are sufficient for climate analysis in larger scale
regions. Therefore, there is a need for more detailed climate information that can assist
decision making at the county and town levels.
To tackle this challenge, we have developed a tool for the Just Another Modelling
System (JAMS; Kralisch et al. 2007) that produces approx. 50 climate characterizing
parameters (e.g. average temperature, ice days, climatic water balance, among others)
for different time intervals. This tool is combined within the JAMS environment
with the J2000g distributed conceptual hydrological model (Krause and Hanisch
2009) to additionally calculate hydro-meteorological parameters, such as actual
evapotranspiration, ground water recharge and runoff generation. The resolution of the data
was transformed to a higher resolution (250 m) by applying an inverse distance weights
(IDW) interpolation. The IDW was combined with an altitude regression approach
using digital elevation model data to represent more detailed information of the land
surface.
We applied this downscaling approach for the federal state of Thuringia, Germany, which
is represented by 371206 model units. An ensemble of 10 different EURO-CORDEX models
(0.11 degree resolution) in a time period from 1961 to 2100 and measured data from 1960 to
1990 were analyzed. The climate change impacts were estimated by analyzing the changes
between historical periods (1960 - 1990) and future periods (2020 – 2050, 2070 -2100) within
the modeled EURO-CORDEX ensemble members.
We also improved our interpolation approach by replacing IDW with kriging; this
approach was especially an advantage for the interpolation of irregularly distributed
measurement stations. The results were used to estimate the effects of climate change for the
federal state of Thuringia and to support Thuringian climate-change mitigation and
adaptation strategies. Future work will concentrate on bias correction of the ensemble
members using the measured data.
References
Kralisch, S., P. Krause, M. Fink, C. Fischer, and W. Flügel (2007): Component
based environmental modelling using the JAMS framework, in Proceedings of
the MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, edited
by D. Kulasiri and L. Oxley, Christchurch, New Zealand
Krause P, Hanisch S (2009): Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected
climate change on the spatially distributed water balance in Thuringia, Germany.
Adv Geosci 21:33-48. doi:10.5194/adgeo-21-33-2009 |
|
|
|
|
|
|