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| Titel |
Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment – application in the Austrian Alps |
| VerfasserIn |
Jose Luis Salinas, Thomas Nester, Jürgen Komma, Günter Blöschl |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250152184
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-16994.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing
regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations.
The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional
intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and
frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and
temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent
soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events.
In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a
modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is
modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space,
and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the
parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal
function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii)
mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv)
24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal
correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency
curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured
ones.
Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric
circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247–1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589. |
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