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| Titel |
Modelling of spatio-temporal correlation structure of daily precipitation – an Austrian example |
| VerfasserIn |
Jose Luis Salinas, Thomas Nester, Jürgen Komma, Günter Blöschl |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250152110
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-16906.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Understanding the spatial and temporal correlation of rainfall is of pivotal importance for
assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard, and for addressing problems like confluences or
joint probability of flood waves. Furthermore, if one aims to simulate precipitation as the
input for long term rainfall–runoff simulations, the correct reproduction of the observed
rainfall spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model important
hydrological features, like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall
events.
In this work, we present a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte
(1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive
model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. The
spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the normal space, allowing for a
different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring
the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrices for both the mAr errors, and the
Normal-space rainfall. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is
performed with a focus on extremes, trying to reproduce the variograms of a series of relevant
rainfall events over the last 50 years in the region of interest (Tirolean Alps in Austia), as well
as intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal
scales.
Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric
circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247–1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589. |
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