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| Titel |
Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2∘C global warming climate |
| VerfasserIn |
Susanna Strada, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, Stéfanon Marc |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250149743
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-14124.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes
(LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from
local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few
hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in
the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate
impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric
impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with
consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional
climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on
LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al.,
2015).
The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global
warming (1.5∘C to a +2∘C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve
such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified
landscape under a +2∘C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies
over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model,
WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2∘C scenario was
selected among those proposed by the “Impact2C” project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the
afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the
maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century.
WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate
model LMDZ for PD (1971–2000) and the +2∘C warming period for the LMDZ model
(2028–2057).
Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2∘C global warming scenario,
afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and
LULCCs. During summer, the afforestation of 1000 km2 increases the mean surface
atmospheric temperature by +0.18∘C. However, during the same season, afforestation
reduces the occurrence of extreme temperatures (> 30∘C).
By analysing LULCC impacts on both mean climate and extremes, this study aims to
possibly raise awareness among decision-makers and land planners on the role LULCCs may
play in the context of climate change.
References
Drobinski, P., et al.: Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE): Application to
process and climate studies in vulnerable regions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 35, 1-18,
2012.
Galos, B., et al.: Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation,
Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 2015.
Mahmood, R., et al.: Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate, Int. J.
Climatol., 34, 929–953, 2014.
Pielke, R. A., et al.: Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and
observational evidence, WIREs Clim Change, 2(6), 828-850, 2011.
Stefanon, M., et al.: Simulating the effect of anthropogenic vegetation land cover on
heatwave temperatures over central France, Clim. Res., 60: 133-146, 2014.
Vautard R., et al.: The European climate under a 2∘ C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9,
2014. |
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