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| Titel |
Sensitivity of seasonal predictability to atmospheric and oceanic model evolution |
| VerfasserIn |
Jean-François Guérémy, Michel Déqué, Lauriane Batté, Constantin Ardilouze, Clotilde Dubois, Danila Volpi, Laurent Dorel |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250147524
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-11700.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In the framework of the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) program, a new coupled system has been developed at Météo-France to carry out seasonal forecasts at a 7-month range. Starting from a current system (called syst5), including ARPEGE-Climat (Tl255l91 and CMIP5 physics), NEMO 3.2 (1°l42 used in CMIP5) and the OASIS coupler, a new system has been set up in 2 steps. Firstly, the atmospheric component has been upgraded using ARPEGE-Climat at Tl359l91 with the new CMIP6 physics, to get an intermediate system (called pre-syst6). Secondly, the oceanic component has been changed to NEMO 3.6 with an improved geometry (1°l75 to be used in CMIP6), to obtain the new system (called syst6). The seasonal forecast ensemble is initialized with ECMWF analyses in the atmosphere and MERCATOR analyses in the ocean; the dispersion is ensured through an atmospheric stochastic dynamics method. Spatial and temporal correlation scores will be shown for the 3 systems, over the re-forecast period starting in 1993. Furthermore, anomaly maps of SST, precipitation and Z500 for selected years of the re-forecast dataset, will be discussed to get an insight on the improvements obtained in the successive systems. |
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