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| Titel |
Seismic hazard assessment over time: Modelling earthquakes in Taiwan |
| VerfasserIn |
Chung-Han Chan, Yu Wang, Yu-Ju Wang, Ya-Ting Lee |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250146854
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-10909.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| To assess the seismic hazard with temporal change in Taiwan, we develop a new approach,
combining both the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model and the Coulomb stress change,
and implement the seismogenic source parameters by the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM).
The BPT model was adopted to describe the rupture recurrence intervals of the specific fault
sources, together with the time elapsed since the last fault-rupture to derive their long-term
rupture probability. We also evaluate the short-term seismicity rate change based on the static
Coulomb stress interaction between seismogenic sources. By considering above
time-dependent factors, our new combined model suggests an increased long-term
seismic hazard in the vicinity of active faults along the western Coastal Plain and
the Longitudinal Valley, where active faults have short recurrence intervals and
long elapsed time since their last ruptures, and/or short-term elevated hazard levels
right after the occurrence of large earthquakes due to the stress triggering effect.
The stress enhanced by the February 6th, 2016, Meinong ML 6.6 earthquake also
significantly increased rupture probabilities of several neighbouring seismogenic
sources in Southwestern Taiwan and raised hazard level in the near future. Our
approach draws on the advantage of incorporating long- and short-term models, to
provide time-dependent earthquake probability constraints. Our time-dependent model
considers more detailed information than any other published models. It thus offers
decision-makers and public officials an adequate basis for rapid evaluations of and
response to future emergency scenarios such as victim relocation and sheltering. |
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