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| Titel |
The sensitivity of West Antarctica to the submarine melting feedback. |
| VerfasserIn |
Robert Arthern, Rosie Williams |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250144239
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-8044.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We use an ice sheet model with realistic initial conditions to forecast how the Amundsen
Sea sector of West Antarctica responds to recently observed rates of submarine
melting. In these simulations, we isolate the effects of a positive feedback, driven by
submarine melt in new ocean cavities flooded during retreat, by allowing the present
climate, calving front and melting beneath existing ice shelves to persist over the
21st Century. Even without additional forcing from changes in climate, ice-shelf
collapse, or ice-cliff collapse, the model predicts sustained retreat of West Antarctica
driven by the marine ice sheet instability and current levels of ocean-driven melting.
When observed rates of melting are included in new sub-glacial ocean cavities, the
simulated sea level contribution increases, and for sufficiently intense melting it
accelerates over time. Conditional Bayesian probabilities for sea level contributions
can be derived, but these require accurate predictions of the ocean heat delivery. |
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