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| Titel |
Present-day dynamics and future evolution of the world’s northernmost ice cap, Hans Tausen Iskappe (Greenland) |
| VerfasserIn |
Harry Zekollari, Philippe Huybrechts, Brice Noël, Willem Jan van de Berg, Michiel R. van den Broeke |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250143518
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-7246.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In this study the dynamics of Hans Tausen Iskappe (western Peary Land, Greenland) are investigated with a coupled ice flow – mass balance model. Precipitation is obtained from the Regional Climate Model RACMO 2.3 and the surface mass balance is calculated from a Positive Degree-Day runoff/retention model, for which the input parameters are derived from field observations. For the ice flow a 3-D higher-order thermo-mechanical model is used, which is run at a 250 m resolution. Under 1961-1990 climatic conditions a steady state ice cap is obtained that is overall similar in geometry to the present-day ice cap. Ice thickness, temperature and flow velocity in the interior agree well with observations. For the outlet glaciers a reasonable agreement with temperature and ice thickness measurements can only be obtained with an additional heat source related to infiltrating meltwater.
The simulations indicate that the SMB-elevation feedback has a major effect on the ice cap response time and stability. This causes the southern part of the ice cap to be extremely sensitive to a change in climatic conditions and leads to thresholds in the ice cap evolution. Under constant 2005-2014 climatic conditions the entire southern part of the ice cap cannot be sustained and the ice cap loses about 80% of its present-day volume. The future projected loss of surrounding permanent sea-ice and corresponding potential sharp precipitation increase may however lead to an attenuation of the retreat and even potential stabilization of the ice cap for a warming of up to 2-3°C. In a warmer and wetter climate the ice margin will retreat while the interior is projected to grow, leading to a steeper ice cap, in line with the present-day observed trends. For intermediate (+4°C) and high warming scenarios (+8°C) the ice cap is projected to disappear respectively around 2400 and 2200 A.D., almost irrespective of the projected precipitation regime and the simulated present-day geometry. |
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