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| Titel |
EDgE multi-model hydro-meteorological seasonal hindcast experiments over Europe |
| VerfasserIn |
Luis Samaniego, Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Oldrich Rakovec, Eric Wood, Justin Sheffield, Ming Pan, Niko Wanders, Christel Prudhomme |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250142119
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-5695.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Extreme hydrometeorological events (e.g., floods, droughts and heat waves) caused serious
damage to society and infrastructures over Europe during the past decades. Developing
a seamless and skillful operational seasonal forecasting system of these extreme
events is therefore a key tool for short-term decision making at local and regional
scales.
The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an
unique opportunity to investigate the skill of a newly created large multi-model
hydro-meteorological ensemble for predicting extreme events over the Pan-EU domain at a
higher resolution 5×5 km2.
Two state-of-the-art seasonal prediction systems were chosen for this project. Two models
from the North American MultiModel ensemble (NMME) with 22 realizations, and two
models provided by the ECMWF with 30 realizations. All models provide daily forcings (P,
Ta, Tmin, Tmax) of the the Pan-EU at 1∘. Downscaling has been carried out with the
MTCLIM algorithm (Bohn et al. 2013) and external drift Kriging using elevation as drift to
induce orographic effects. In this project, four high-resolution seamless hydrologic
simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and PCR-GLOBWB have
been completed for the common hindcast period of 1993-2012 resulting in an ensemble size
of 208 realizations.
Key indicators are focussing on six terrestrial Essential Climate Variables (tECVs): river
runoff, soil moisture, groundwater recharge, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and
snow water equivalent. Impact Indicators have been co-designed with stakeholders in Norway
(hydro-power), UK (water supply), and Spain (river basin authority) to provide an improved
information for decision making. The Indicators encompass diverse information such as
the occurrence of high and low streamflow percentiles (floods, and hydrological
drought) and lower percentiles of top soil moisture (agricultural drought) among
others.
Preliminary results evaluated at study sites in Norway, Spain, and UK indicate that
extreme events such as the 2003 European drought can be forecasted consistently by all
models at short lead times of one to two months. At six month lead time, the 208 model
realizations show little skill to forecast extreme events. The predictability of extreme events is
not uniformly distributed across Europe. For example, Northern Europe exhibits
higher predictability due to the persistence induced by cold processes (e.g., snow). In
general, the major source of poor forecasting skill is the little skill in precipitation
forecast.
References
http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe
Bohn, T. J. , B., Livneh J. W. Oyler, S. W. Running, B. Nijssen, D. P. Lettenmaier,
2013: Global evaluation of MTCLIM and related algorithms for forcing of
ecological and hydrological models. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 176 ,
pp. 38-49.
Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and S. Attinger (2010), Multiscale parameter
regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water
Resource Research, 46, W05523, doi:10.1029/2008WR007327
Thober, S., R. Kumar, J. Sheffield, J. Mai, D. Schaefer, and L. Samaniego, 2015:
Seasonal soil moisture drought prediction over Europe using the North American
Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). J. Hydrometeor., 16, 2329–2344. |
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