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| Titel |
Drought and heatwaves in Europe: historical reconstruction and future projections |
| VerfasserIn |
Luis Samaniego, Stephan Thober, Rohini Kumar, Olda Rakovec, Eric Wood, Justin Sheffield, Ming Pan, Niko Wanders, Christel Prudhomme |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250142084
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-5659.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Heat waves and droughts are creeping hydro-meteorological events that may bring societies
and natural systems to their limits by inducing large famines, increasing health risks to the
population, creating drinking and irrigation water shortfalls, inducing natural fires and
degradation of soil and water quality, and in many cases causing large socio-economic losses.
Europe, in particular, has endured large scale drought-heat-wave events during the recent past
(e.g., 2003 European drought), which have induced enormous socio-economic losses as well
as casualties.
Recent studies showed that the prediction of droughts and heatwaves is subject to
large-scale forcing and parametric uncertainties that lead to considerable uncertainties in
the projections of extreme characteristics such as drought magnitude/duration and
area under drought, among others. Future projections are also heavily influenced
by the RCP scenario uncertainty as well as the coarser spatial resolution of the
models.
The EDgE project funded by the Copernicus programme (C3S) provides an unique
opportunity to investigate the evolution of droughts and heatwaves from 1950 until 2099 over
the Pan-EU domain at a scale of 5x5 km2. In this project, high-resolution multi-model
hydrologic simulations with the mHM (www.ufz.de/mhm), Noah-MP, VIC and
PCR-GLOBWB have been completed for the historical period 1955-2015. Climate
projections have been carried out with five CMIP-5 GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES,
IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, NorESM1-M from 2006 to 2099 under RCP2.6 and
RCP8.5.
Using these multi-model unprecedented simulations, daily soil moisture index and
temperature anomalies since 1955 until 2099 will be estimated. Using the procedure proposed
by Samaniego et al. (2013), the probabilities of exceeding the benchmark events in the
reference period 1980-2010 will be estimated for each RCP scenario.
References
http://climate.copernicus.eu/edge-end-end-demonstrator-improved-decision-making-water-sector-europe
Samaniego, L., R. Kumar, and M. Zink, 2013: Implications of parameter
uncertainty on soil moisture drought analysis in Germany. J. Hydrometeor., 14,
47–68, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-075.1.
Samaniego, L., et al. 2016: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainties on to
hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment
in large river basins. Climatic Change. 1-15. |
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