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| Titel |
An Integrated Decision Support System with Hydrological Processes and
Socio-economic Assessments |
| VerfasserIn |
Yang Yu, Markus Disse, Ruide Yu |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250140821
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-4260.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| The debate over the effectiveness of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) in
practice has lasted for years. As the complexity and scope of IWRM increases, the difficulties
of hydrological modeling is shifting from the model itself into the links with other
cognate sciences, to understand the interactions among water, earth, ecosystem
and humans. This work presents the design and development of a decision support
system (DSS) that links the outputs of hydrological models with real-time decision
making on social-economic assessments and land use changes. Discharge and glacier
geometry changes were simulated with hydrological model WASA. Irrigation and
ecological water were simulated by a new commercial software MIKE HYDRO.
Groundwater was simulated by MODFLOW. All the outputs of theses hydrological
models were integrated as inputs into the DSS in three types of links: regression
equations, stationary data inputs, or dynamic data inputs into DSS as the models running
parallel in the simulation periods. Within DSS, three types of logics were established:
equations, conditional statements and fuzzy logics. The programming was realized in
C++.
The implementation of DSS takes place in the Tarim River Basin. With the mainstream of
1,321km and located in an arid area in northwest China, the Tarim River is China’s longest
inland river. The Tarim basin on the northern edge of the Taklamakan desert is an extremely
arid region. In this region, agricultural water consumption and allocation management are
crucial to address the conflicts among irrigation water users from upstream to downstream.
Since 2011, the German Ministry of Science and Education BMBF established the
Sino-German SuMaRiO project, for the sustainable management of river oases
along the Tarim River. Project SuMaRiO focus on realizable management strategies,
considering social, economic and ecological criteria. This will have positive effects for
nearly 10 million inhabitants of different ethnic groups. DSS is the main outcome of
SuMaRiO. The overall goal of the DSS is to integrate all crucial research results of
SuMaRiO, also including stakeholder perspectives, into a model based decision support
system, which allows a Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) within regional
planning. This SIA will take into account the perspectives of all relevant actors in the
problem field of land and water management in the Tarim River Basin, to understand
ecosystem services (ESS) and integrating them into land and water management.
Under scenario assumptions, possible actions and their impacts are estimated in a
semi-quantitative way with the help of sustainable indicators, which includes climate
indicators, socio-economic Indicators, management Indicators, and ESS Indicators. A
user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) was developed to assist the decision-makers
and common users, with Chinese and English versions available at the moment. |
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