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| Titel |
Observations relating extreme multi-basin river flows to very severe gales |
| VerfasserIn |
John Hillier, Paolo De Luca, Rob Wilby, Nevil Quinn, Shaun Harrigan |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250138638
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-1723.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Fluvial foods are typically investigated as ‘events’ at the single basin scale. However,
applying a recently developed methodology to identify the largest multi-basin peak flow
events allows a statistically significant relationship between them and episodes of very
severe gales (VSG) to be identified; such a systematic link has previously only
very tentatively been proposed for extra-tropical cyclone seasons, where damaging
wind and rain are commonly non-synchronous. Annual maximum river peak flow
(AMAX) data during 1975-2014 for 261 non-nested catchments (i.e. with no other sites
upstream) in Great Britain are used, and a 13-day window is selected. A simple
correlation between metrics that are proxies for damaging wind and flooding is
statistically significant (r = 0.41, p = 0.0088). Also, taking the most severe 50% and 30%
of years for wind and flow respectively, co-occurrence is expected 6.6 times in
40 years whilst 10 are observed (p = 0.021; simulation with n = 10,000), making
co-occurrence of the extremes 52% more likely than expected by chance. This
has implications for emergency response and financial planning (e.g. insurance). |
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