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| Titel |
Hydrological Assessment of Model Performance and Scenario Analyses of Land Use Change and Climate Change in lowlands of Veneto Region (Italy) |
| VerfasserIn |
Anton Pijl, Claudia Brauer, Giulia Sofia, Ryan Teuling, Paolo Tarolli |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2017
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 19 (2017) |
| Datensatznummer |
250138449
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2017-1464.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| Growing water-related challenges in lowland areas of the world call for good
assessment of our past and present actions, in order to guide our future
decisions. The novel Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS; Brauer et
al., 2014) was developed to simulate hydrological processes and has showed
promising performance in recent studies in the Netherlands. Here the model
was applied to a coastal basin of 2800 ha in the Veneto Region (northern
Italy) to test model performance and evaluate scenario analyses of land use
change and climate change. Located partially below sea-level, the reclaimed
area is facing persistent land transformation and climate change trends,
which alter not only the processes in the catchment but also the demands
from it (Tarolli and Sofia, 2016). Firstly results of the calibration (NSE =
0.77; year simulation, daily resolution) and validation (NSE = 0.53; \textit{idem})
showed that the model is able to reproduce the dominant hydrological
processes of this lowland area (e.g. discharge and groundwater fluxes). Land
use scenarios between 1951 and 2060 were constructed using demographic
models, supported by orthographic interpretation techniques. Climate
scenarios were constructed by historical records and future projections by
COSMO-CLM regional climate model (Rockel et al., 2008) under the RCP4.5
pathway. WALRUS simulations showed that the land use changes result in a
wetter catchment with more discharge, and the climatic changes cause more
extremes with longer droughts and stronger rain events. These changes
combined show drier summers (-33{\%} rainfall, +27{\%} soil moisture deficit)
and wetter (+13{\%} rainfall) and intenser (+30{\%} rain intensity) autumn
and winters in the future. The simulated discharge regime --particularly
peak flow-- follows these polarising trends, in good agreement with similar
studies in the geographical zone (e.g. Vezzoli et al., 2015). This will
increase the pressure on the fully-artificial drainage and agricultural
systems, that will need to adapt to prevent largescale floods or
crop-failure. Additionally, simulations under 'business-as-usual' pathway
RCP8.5 would likely amplify the polarising effects on the hydrological
regime as presented here, further stressing the need for adequate
adaptation.
The proposed presentation at EGU 2017 will contain clear visual results of
the model and quantitative scenario simulations. These results are
particularly interesting, firstly because they prove how a simple conceptual
model can become a powerful tool in scenario analysis of future pathways.
Furthermore, they clearly indicate major challenges that lowland areas are
facing in modern times -- not only the 46.000 km$^{2}$ Po valley, but all
around the world where lowlands often host the centres of our societies and
economies.\\
\\
\underline{REFERENCES}
Brauer, C., Teuling, A., Torfs, P., Uijlenhoet, R., 2014. The Wageningen
Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall--runoff model for
catchments with shallow groundwater. Geoscientific Model Development 7 (5),
2313--2332.
Rockel, B., Will, A., Hense, A., 2008. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM
(CCLM). Meteorologische Zeitschrift 17 (4), 347--348.
Tarolli, P., Sofia, G., 2016. Human topographic signatures and derived
geomorphic processes across landscapes. Geomorphology 255, 140--161.
Vezzoli, R., Mercogliano, P., Pecora, S., Zollo, A., Cacciamani, C., 2015.
Hydrological simulation of Po River (North Italy) discharge under climate
change scenarios using the RCM COSMO-CLM. Science of The Total Environment
521, 346--358. |
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