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| Titel |
On the magnitude of the most recent El Niño event |
| VerfasserIn |
Costas A. Varotsos, Chris G. Tzanis, Nicholas V. Sarlis |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250137103
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-18294.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| In our very recent study (Varotsos et al., 2015), we suggested, in contrast to published scientific reports, that the 2015–2016 El Niño event would not become one of the strongest El Niño events on record. This prediction was based on the analysis of the available Southern Oscillation Index data with a new nonlinear dynamics tool that uses the change of the entropy defined in a novel time domain called “natural time”. The termination of this El Niño event will confirm or not our prediction results. In this work, we intend to further discuss the reasons that our results were confirmed or not.
Keywords: Nonlinear variability, Climate system, El Niño, Entropy, Natural time
Reference
Varotsos, C.A., Tzanis, C.G., and Sarlis, N.V.: Technical note: On the progress of the 2015–2016 El Niño event, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 15, 35787-35797, 2015. |
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