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| Titel |
Attributing recent changes in droughts over China: 1961-2013 |
| VerfasserIn |
Fubao Sun, Jie Zhang, Jijun Xu, Yaning Chen, Yanfang Sang, Changming Liu |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250136465
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-17508.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| It is controversial how droughts respond to global warming for the commonly used drought index: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Here we assess recent changes in the droughts over China (1961-2013) using the PDSI with two different estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite (PDSI_th) and Penman-Monteith (PDSI_pm) approaches. We found that droughts have become more severe in the PDSI_th but slightly lessened in the PDSI_pm estimate. To quantify and attribute that difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm, we designed numerical experiments and found that drying trend of the PDSI_th responding to the global warming alone is 3.4 times higher than that of the PDSI_pm, and the latter was further compensated by decreases in wind speed and solar radiation causing the slightly wetting in the PDSI_pm. Interestingly, we found that inter-basin difference in the PDSI_th and PDSI_pm response to the global warming alone tends to be larger in warmer basins, exponentially depending on mean temperature.
References:
Zhang, J., F. Sun, J. Xu, Y. Chen, Y. Sang, and C. Liu (2016), Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961–2013) on potential evaporation model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, doi:10.1002/2015GL067473.
Sun, F. B., M. L. Roderick, and G. D. Farquhar (2012), Changes in the variability of global land precipitation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19402, doi: 10.1029/2012GL053369. |
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