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| Titel |
From regional to site specific SPTHA through inundation simulations: a case study for three test sites in Central Mediterranean |
| VerfasserIn |
Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Fabrizio Romano, Manuela Volpe, Beatriz Brizuela, Alessio Piatanesi, Roberto Basili, Stefano Lorito |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250136038
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-16988.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We propose a procedure that enables the quantification of tsunami hazard at specific target
sites through numerical simulations, accounting for the full variability of potential seismic
sources. To this end, we developed a method that reduces the computational effort required
by a very large number of detailed inundation simulations by adopting the offshore tsunami
propagation patterns used for regional Seismic PTHA (SPTHA) as a proxy for the subsequent
hazard estimate. The reduction of the computational effort is based on a two steps filtering
procedure of the offshore SPTHA, through which a reduced number of scenarios to be
modelled for inundation is selected. Each scenario represents a larger set of sources
that form a cluster of potential tsunamis with similar impact on the target area.
This filtering procedure is completely based on the tsunami profiles offshore, and it
represents a generalization of the method proposed in Lorito et al. (2015) allowing
i) to consider a much larger set of input linear simulations, and ii) to control the
within-cluster variance of each selected cluster of seismic sources (thence, indirectly the
artificial uncertainty introduced in probabilistic inundation maps by this filtering
process).
Here we present the preliminary results obtained for three test sites in central
Mediterranean (Milazzo and Siracusa, Southern Italy, and Thessaloniki, Northern Greece).
We preliminary perform a regional SPTHA covering the whole Mediterranean, in which the
aleatory variability is quantified considering about 2 × 107 different seismic sources, and
epistemic uncertainty is explored through an ensemble model based on more than ×105
alternative model implementations. For each site, separately, few hundreds of “representative
scenarios” are filtered out of all the potential seismic sources. Then, the inundations caused
by such scenarios is explicitly modelled and the site-specific SPTHA obtained, allowing a
complete characterization of the tsunami hazard in terms of inundation depth and velocity
time histories.
This procedure and the applications have been developed in the framework of the EC
projects ASTARTE and STREST. |
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