 |
| Titel |
Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA): towards PTHA assessment for the coasts of Italy |
| VerfasserIn |
Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Irene Molinari, Mara M. Tiberti, Fabrizio Romano, Anita Grezio, Daniele Melini, Alessio Piatanesi, Roberto Basili, Stefano Lorito |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
|
| Medientyp |
Artikel
|
| Sprache |
en
|
| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250135914
|
| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-16837.pdf |
|
|
|
|
|
| Zusammenfassung |
| We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami
Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to
statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and
on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes. Differently from
classical approaches that commonly adopt the hazard integral and logic tree, we use
an event tree approach and ensemble modelling. The procedure was developed in
the framework of the EC projects ASTARTE and STREST, of the Italian National
Flagship project RITMARE, and of the agreement between Italian Civil Protection and
INGV. A total of about 2 × 107 different potential seismic sources covering the
entire Mediterranean Sea, and more than 1 × 105 alternative model implementations
have been considered to quantify both the aleatory variability and the epistemic
uncertainty. A set of hazard curves is obtained along the coasts of the entire Italian
territory. They are the prototype of the first homogeneous Italian national SPTHA map. |
|
|
|
|
|
|