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| Titel |
Evaluation and first forecasts of the German Climate Forecast System 1 (GCFS1) |
| VerfasserIn |
Kristina Fröhlich, Johanna Baehr, Wolfgang Müller, Felix Bunzel, Holger Pohlmann, Mikhail Dobrynin |
| Konferenz |
EGU General Assembly 2016
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| Medientyp |
Artikel
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| Sprache |
en
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| Digitales Dokument |
PDF |
| Erschienen |
In: GRA - Volume 18 (2016) |
| Datensatznummer |
250135756
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| Publikation (Nr.) |
 EGU/EGU2016-16659.pdf |
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| Zusammenfassung |
| We present the near-operational seasonal forecast system GCFS1 (German Climate Forecast
System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model
MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the
model.
GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for
Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the
forecasts are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-forecast
ensemble of 15 member and a forecast ensemble of 30 member. The re-forecasts are
initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using
ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the
initialization of the forecasts analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent
ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-forecasts
and forecasts, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial
perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the
atmosphere.
Evaluation of the re-forecasted climatologies will be presented for different variables,
start dates and regions. The first winter forecast during the strong El Niño phase is also
subject of evaluation. |
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